What a year 2024 has been. There was the UK election, which surprised no one with its outcome, and the US election, which surprised a lot of people apart from the bookies, who had Donald Trump pegged as the winner for months.
There have been tragedies and health struggles in the royal family, a huge Photoshop furore and, yet again, scandal surrounding Prince Andrew.
We are entering the year with deadly conflicts continuing in places including Ukraine, Gaza and South Sudan. This year may bring a resolution for Ukraine, which is widely expected to be forced to compromise in negotiations with Russia after Trump becomes president. The future for Gaza and the West Bank, as well as the future security of Israel, remain uncertain. Some hostages taken on October 7, 2023, by Hamas remain in captivity, while many thousands of Palestinians have been displaced from their homes. Iran and its proxies in the Middle East are still committed to the destruction of Israel.
But 2025 could also bring hope, with the rise of weight-loss drugs like Ozempic expected to continue. It is thought wider use of the drug could lead to a fall in obesity, which has cost the UK economy £98billion a year.
And while the rapid development of AI may continue to hit jobs in certain sectors, the technology can also be used to improve efficiency, including in places like the NHS.
Here’s a look at some of the things to expect in 2025.
Keir Starmer won’t be ousted
There are all sorts of rumours flying around the usual spaces on social media that Sir Keir Starmer won’t be PM by this time next year. It’s not smart to say such things have a 0% chance of happening, but you only need to examine the reality to see that it’s as close to zero as you can get.
Labour won a majority in the July general election - which was a fair democratic vote. The only way a general election could possibly be forced is if a huge number of Labour MPs support a no confidence vote in the Commons. Again, there is close to zero chance of that happening as things stand. Otherwise, it’s Starmer’s choice. Why would he give up power just months into a five-year term with a stonking majority?
Buyer’s remorse may be very real for some people given the decisions made on inheritance tax for farmland, lack of compensation for WASPI women and hiking employers national insurance, but there are no election do-overs because the government made unpopular decisions. That is a tale as old as time.
Could Labour get rid of Starmer? Not likely. While he is indeed polling poorly among the general public, he’s delivered a huge victory for the party. Getting rid of him wouldn’t be likely to make much difference to the discontent over some of the decisions made in the budget.
And if all of that wasn’t enough to show you Starmer is going nowhere in 2025, we’ve recently had a poll giving us an idea of what the result would be if another general election were to be held now (which it won’t, but it’s interesting to see the results).
Labour would lose more than 200 seats and its majority, according to More in Common’s poll. The party would lose 87 seats to the Conservatives and 67 to Reform. This would make Reform the third largest party, but not quite the opposition, as leader Nigel Farage has claimed
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Keir Starmer needs to deliver
Even though Starmer’s job is safe, he still needs to start showing the country tangible results from the government’s actions.
The NHS, net migration numbers, small boat arrivals and the economy are crucial. People need to feel like they’re better off and can access a doctors’ appointment, and that needs to happen sooner rather than later. If Starmer cannot deliver that, then the current discontent becomes baked-in and winning again in 2029 would be a mountain to climb.
So far the vibe from Labour has been “everything is broken, so we need you to suffer while we fix it”. That’s at odds with the hope-filled “change” slogan Labour used in the general election.
Reform is waiting eagerly in the wings and, according to the party, it now has more paid members than the Conservatives. Unlike the Conservatives, Reform is untarnished by the last 14 years (unless you’re someone who resents Nigel Farage over Brexit).
When it comes to immigration, Farage can continue to hammer Labour over the slow progress on stopping the Channel crossings, capitalising on people’s frustrations at the perceived unfairness of illegal arrivals. The Tories failed to get to grips with this issue, and so cannot score as many points in this and other areas.
It will remain very difficult for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch to land heavy blows on Starmer in the Commons when he can reply to virtually every criticism with a sentence along the lines of “That’s a bit rich, given this was your policy/decision/failure”. Badenoch has struggled to find her feet as leader so far, earning headlines about her dislike of sandwiches and public spats with Farage, rather than her cohesive plan for putting the Tories back in power.
Buckle up for Trump 2.0
Trying to predict exactly how the second Donald Trump presidency will play out is virtually impossible. This is, largely, because what Trump says isn’t necessarily always what he means.
After his inauguration on January 20, will he follow through on his threat to impose tariffs as high as 60% on imports from places like China? He’s threatening 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico if they do not take stronger action to secure borders and stem the flow of illegal drugs into the US. He’s even indicated that Canada should become the 51st state.
Trump has in the past gone heavy on the rhetoric, making lofty threats, then dialled it right back when it comes to the crunch. Some people use this as evidence of his flightiness, but maybe it’s a strategy, part of his “art of the deal”. It potentially makes him a nightmare to do diplomacy with, but it could be good for the US in isolation.
My one prediction I will make is that Trump’s relationship with Elon Musk will be a bumpy one. There’s a mutual need that may keep the two working together in 2025. However, will their habit of tweeting every thought in their head lead to a war of words? Can their egos handle the challenge of competing to be the most powerful person in the room?
There is already a potential split in MAGA world courtesy of a row over visas for skilled workers. Musk has vowed to “go to war” to defend the H-1B visa for foreign tech workers. However some from the MAGA camp believe skilled and unskilled migration hurts American workers.
Trump has vowed to deport all immigrants who are in the US illegally. He has promised to round such people up and place them into camps ready to be removed from the country.
Princess of Wales back in the spotlight
Following the completion of her cancer treatment, the Princess of Wales has been gradually returning to duties since September, when she released a video updating the public on her condition.
Since the video’s release, Catherine has been seen at a number of high-profile engagements, including her annual Christmas carol concert.
However she has not made a full return to her public-facing duties, and no specific timeline has been given for this.
If her health struggles are behind her, then perhaps by mid 2025 we will see her back to a full programme of events. The palace is surely aware that if she is not, then there will be pressure placed on them to release further information about her condition, lest we see a repeat of the nasty speculation we saw circulating online in spring 2024.
It is possible we will get more of an insight into what her health condition has been. Although Catherine has released deeply personal messages to the public regarding her cancer battle, she has not provided details about what the condition is. The royal family may prefer to keep it this way, to avoid a media frenzy picking over what her potential long-term outcomes may be.
Get ready for Prince Harry vs The Sun
Prince Harry scored a huge win in 2024 when his claim against the Daily Mirror’s publisher Mirror Group Newspapers. He was awarded all of his legal costs plus £300,000, but his cases against British media are not about the money. They are part of his mission to hold journalists and newspaper groups accountable for their news-gathering methods.
In January, Harry is set to take on the publisher of The Sun, News Group Newspapers. The company has previously accepted phone hacking took place at the News of the World, the paper it closed after revelations of phone hacking emerged in 2011. However it has always denied unlawful activity happened at The Sun. Prince Harry is seeking to prove it did.
Harry was part of a group of more than 40 individuals pursuing claims against NGN, however all but two of those have settled. The way civil cases such as these work means that continuing to pursue the claim when an offer to settle is on the table can prove far more costly. Harry has previously said he does not care about the cost. NGN has also settled with hundreds of other claimants over illegal information-gathering.
Harry told the New York Times in December: “They’ve settled because they’ve had to settle. So, therefore, one of the main reasons for seeing this through is accountability, because I am that last person that can actually achieve that, and also closure for those 1,300 people and families.”
The Sun’s legal team has argued that Harry is trying to turn the case into a “public inquiry” to seek accountability.
This case is one to watch for sure.
Also this week
A fascinating read from N Plus One about how Netflix makes content for people who aren’t even watching it. People who are watching Netflix while doing the housework or scrolling on their phone are likely to be enjoying the microgenre that is “casual viewing”. This is why so much dialogue is filled with over-explanation of what’s happened in the plot.
Google has overhauled its search algorithm in the last 18 months, to the despair of small websites which have dropped out of search results in favour of sites like Reddit. CNET takes a look at how the internet is now worse off for it.
What I’m Watching
The Six Triple Eight (Netflix). This drama movie tells the story of the 688th, an all-black, all-female battalion that made an outstanding contribution to the Second World War effort by organising mail delivery for troops on the frontline. I was deeply moved by this story of women who were underestimated, and mistreated, by their colleagues and yet brought hope to thousands.