Shaky ceasefire after “daddy” Trump’s f-bomb rant
Trump said fuck, Iran and Israel backed down and NATO chief called Trump “Daddy"- unravelling a chaotic week for global politics.
Last week when I hit publish on my newsletter I went to bed nervous that everything would have changed by the time people read it at 6am.
Donald Trump’s “strategic ambiguity” on issues like the Middle East means I was braced for an overnight development where the US had entered the conflict between Iran and Israel.
But in the end it was a couple of days later, in the early hours of Sunday morning, when the US president did take action to help Israel take out Iran’s nuclear programme.
It’s been a chaotic, and at times confusing, few days since, with Iran launching a performative strike against a US air base before both Israel and Iran were strong-armed into a ceasefire by Trump, who is keen to live up to his claim of being a peacemaking president.
Trump has angrily denied claims from his own Pentagon about the effectiveness of the US’s strikes on the Iranian nuclear facilities
No one knows for sure what happens next, but it seems likely the ceasefire between Israel and Iran will hold for now.
Trump has rebuked both sides for early violations of the ceasefire - even unleashing an f-bomb, as he told reporters: “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.”
Not only does Trump want a deal to go his way, he wants it done quickly. He has little patience for minutiae and trade-offs. Unlike in Ukraine, Trump has shown willingness to throw his weight around to get what he wants.
Iran knows that it cannot win a war against the US. Israel knows it needs US support, and PM Benjamin Netanyahu knows that the strategic partnership with Trump is important.
All of this chaos took place this week as NATO leaders gathered to discuss a dramatic increase in defence spending - provoked both by US complaints of cheapskate nations and the threat from Russia in Europe.
In addition the UK released a National Security Strategy this week that had several people on Instagram worried they needed to start stockpiling/leave London/cancel travel plans.
There have been some deeply unhelpful headlines regarding this strategy, so to be clear, it is about preparedness. Yes there are very real threats, and we’re told the UK must “actively prepare for war”. That is quite different to war arriving imminently.
A combination of headlines - plus all the scaremongering interpretations on TikTok - may have led you to believe World War Three is here.
It’s unfortunate that we live in an age of information overload where panic can spread faster than facts.
Between performative missile strikes, power plays and presidential profanity, it's tempting to believe we're on the brink. But much of what we’re seeing is about deterrence, diplomacy under pressure and leaders posturing for their domestic audiences as much as for global ones.
There’s no question we’re in a volatile moment. But volatility isn’t the same as inevitability.
Keep watching and engaging, but don’t let the noise convince you the sky is falling.
Need to know
Israel-Iran conflict, NATO leaders gather and Trump’s fury
It’s been an extremely eventful week in the Middle East and also for European defence.
Here are the key things to know about how this chaotic few days have unfolded and what comes next:
Operation Midnight Hammer: The US dropped 30,000lb bunker-buster bombs on three nuclear enrichment sites in Iran with the aim to completely wipe out Tehran’s nuclear programme. The US had been in negotiations with Iran to come to a nuclear deal where they agreed not to develop the deadly bombs. However these had gone nowhere in recent days, and Israel effectively forced Trump’s hand when it began bombing Iran two weeks ago. At this stage, the US had a choice - wait for Iran to come back to negotiations or help Israel finish the job.
Iran’s show: A response from the Iranian regime was inevitable, however the country offered what Trump called a “very weak” retaliation in the form of a performative strike on the US’s base in Qatar. Iran offered prior warning that the strike was taking place on Monday and the missiles were shot down by US air defences, leaving no casualties. This meant Iran could claim victory back at home for having fired some rockets - saving face after suffering a battering from Israel - while Trump did not feel a need to respond because it was so effectively knocked back.
An uneasy truce: Unnervingly, but also usefully for those of us not in the room, Trump conducts much of his foreign policy via Truth Social rather than behind closed doors. At times it’s a stream of consciousness that cannot be taken too literally, and one post is often cancelled out by the next, but we’re kept in the loop. As a result, we’ve all been able to bear witness to his meandering thought process as he navigated the period after Iran’s attempt at bombing the Qatar air base. Having claimed victory over Iran’s nuclear programme - perhaps prematurely as the intelligence suggests - Trump then declared “IT’S TIME FOR PEACE”. Trump’s ability to manifest things into reality - even stuff that has no factual basis - has worked out for him at home. However on the global stage Trump is dealing with other egos and warring interests. Trump declared a “CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT”. But just hours later Iran and Israel were trading rocket fire again. A furious Trump told the media the two nations didn’t know “what the fuck” they were doing: “I’m not happy with Israel. I’m not happy with Iran either.” The two parties seemed to recognise Trump’s patience was wearing thin, and backed down. For now, the ceasefire is in place and talks are set to begin next week.
Obliterated or not: Donald Trump has insisted Iran’s nuclear sites were “completely obliterated” and that Iran’s nuclear programme has been set back by decades. However on Tuesday night a report from The Pentagon was leaked to CNN, the New York Times and others, saying that the programme had only been set back by three months. The assessment, produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon's military intelligence wing, said the strikes caused the entrances to two nuclear enrichment facilities to be sealed off. Resumption of the enrichment programme may be determined by how long it takes Iran to clear the entrances and make repairs to electrical and water supplies, two sources familiar with the report's findings told CBS.
How close: Trump and Netanyahu have claimed that Iran was weeks away from having nuclear weapons. The country has enriched uranium up to 60% purity, which is only a short step away from the 90% level generally used in nuclear weapons. In March, the US intelligence community assessed that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon. It is not clear how committed Iran was to getting a nuclear weapon, or if it just wanted to have the ability to make one quickly if it felt threatened. Either way, Israel viewed Iran’s nuclear programme as a threat to its existence and saw now - when Iran’s proxies in the Middle East, Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis, are weakened - as a window of opportunity to take it out.
“Scum” media: Infuriated with the mere suggestion that his pride in the strikes in Iran may be misplaced, Trump lashed out at the press during the NATO summit on Wednesday. Calling some members of the gathered press “scum”, including CNN, Trump complained about the reporting on the US intelligence report, dismissing it as “fake news”. The White House has never denied the report exists, and instead seems to be annoyed at its existence and the attention it has received in the media. It’s yet another alarming sign at how comfortable Trump feels with undermining the freedom of the press. Had CNN, the New York Times and others ignored this report because it may undermine Trump, they would have effectively become state-run media.
Change of regime?: The Islamic Republic maintains its grip on power, however Trump has speculated about regime change, even though his administration’s official stance is the mission has never been about toppling the Iranian regime. This is likely one of those times where Trump is merely toying with the idea, but isn’t serious about getting involved in changing Iran’s leadership. Doing so would mean war with Iran, something that goes against Trump’s promise to not drag the US into more “forever wars” in the Middle East.
Paying the bills: NATO leaders, including the UK prime minister, have committed to spending 5% of GDP annually on defence by 2035. A new declaration signed by the leaders this week in the Netherlands notes the “long term threat posed by Russia to Euro-Atlantic security”. There has been uncertainty since Trump’s election as to whether he would honour Article 5 of the NATO agreement - where an attack on one nation is seen as an attack on all. This week leaders were keen to emphasise the US still has their back, and on Wednesday NATO secretary general Mark Rutte said that “Trump has been clear America is committed to NATO”.
“Daddy”: Rutte insisted to the media this week that he was not embarrassed that Trump had shared a gushing message he sent praising the president for getting allies to increase defence spending. He continued the love-in at a press briefing on Wednesday, when he referred to Trump as “daddy” as they discussed the Iran-Israel conflict as being like two children fighting. Trump has been welcomed to the summit in the Netherlands like a king, which many would argue is the right approach with the thin-skinned president. Asked by Sky News if Rutte’s “daddy” remark means Trump regards the rest of NATO as his children, the president replied: “He likes me, I think he likes me. If he doesn't, I'll let you know. I'll come back, and I'll hit him hard, OK? He did it very affectionately. Daddy, you’re my daddy.” He continued the commitment to increasing spending had been a “big day” for NATO.
Zooming out: Trump’s effort to get NATO to increase its defence spending is not a new one. Other US presidents have tried, but it has taken the threat of Russia and Trump’s ambiguous commitment to defending allies that has led nations to up their commitments.
Trump’s prize: Will Trump’s actions in Iran earn him the Nobel Peace Prize he has coveted for years? This week Trump has gained and lost Nobel Peace Prize nominations. Trump received a nomination from fellow Republican Buddy Carter for his role in brokering the ceasefire arrangement between Iran and Israel. However Oleksandr Merezhko, Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign committee head, withdrew his nomination, saying he had “lost any sort of faith and belief” in Trump and his ability to secure a ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv.
Zelenskyy’s dress code: Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has had a busy week on the world stage, taking lunch with King Charles at Windsor Castle, meeting Keir Starmer at Number 10 and attending the NATO summit. The leader swapped his combat fatigues for a black blazer, shirt and trousers. It stopped short of being a full suit, with no tie present, but it seems to be a change in direction for the president, perhaps bowing to pressure over his attire. There has been an obsession among conservatives in the US over how Zelenskyy dresses. The president wears fatigues in solidarity with his armed forces while his country is at war. Trump quipped Zelenskyy was “all dressed up” when he arrived for the disastrous White House meeting in February.
Also: Trump’s MAGA base is divided over Trump’s military action in Iran. This was perhaps best illustrated last week in Tucker Carlson’s entertaining interview with Republican Ted Cruz. Carlson put Cruz on the spot about Iran’s population, and berated him for knowing “nothing” about the country he wants to topple. They also clashed on Russia, with Cruz ripping into Carlson for his “weird” support for Vladimir Putin’s regime.
The List
Welfare rebellion: More than 120 Labour MPs have signed an amendment that would crush the government’s welfare bill. Keir Starmer wants to cut welfare spending by £5billion a year by 2030, as annual costs have risen dramatically in recent years. The government estimates 3.2million families will be worse off as a result of changes to personal independence payments (PIP) and universal credit. You can read up on what the proposed changes are here. Supporters of the government plans say the current system is “simply unsustainable”. Starmer says he plans to “press ahead” with a vote on the welfare reform next week. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has said she will back the government to help it pass the changes, provided Starmer promises to do three things: reduce the welfare budget, get people back to work and guarantee no tax rises. This comes as Starmer faces challenges on multiple fronts, including warnings that taxes may have to rise in autumn to cover defence spending increases, that growing welfare bill and other items. After U-turns on winter fuel allowance and potentially the two-child benefit cap, the government looks weak on decision-making and the economy. As Starmer looks for a solution, some are predicting that he could choose to oust chancellor Rachel Reeves to save himself. Journalist Andrew Marr wrote this week: “The Chancellor has become extraordinarily unpopular among Labour MPs who blame her for the benefit cuts and winter fuel allowance mistake, marching them up the hill then down again, making them look stupid - and then coming back to do it again.”
Clickbait: The UK government this week unveiled its National Security Strategy - a plan setting out how the UK must prepare for the possibility of a “wartime scenario” on home soil. The strategy warned that events in the Middle East and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to add to international instability. Unhelpfully, the Mirror referred to it as a “chilling” government warning in a headline, while The Sun threw on the caps lock, declaring “Threat is MUCH closer than we think”. The publication of this document does not mean war is imminent, but it does mean the country faces a range of threats, from cyber to sabotage of power lines, that need to be prepared for. “For the first time in many years, we have to actively prepare for the possibility of the UK homeland coming under direct threat, potentially in a wartime scenario,” the strategy warns.
Maternity review: Health secretary Wes Streeting has announced a national investigation into maternity care in England. The "rapid" inquiry will urgently look at the worst-performing maternity and neonatal services in the country. Writing for The Times this week, Streeting said he had met parents who have lost babies in a series of maternity scandals at some NHS trusts and said the investigation would "make sure these families get the truth and the accountability they deserve”. The review will begin this summer and report back by December 2025.
Killed by misinformation?: The siblings of a young women who died from cancer claim their mum’s conspiracy theories are to blame. Gabriel and Sebastian Shemirani told BBC’s Panorama that their sister Paloma was told she had a high chance of surviving her cancer if she underwent chemotherapy. However she died seven months later, having refused the treatment. Their mother, Kate Shemirani, was struck off as a nurse during the pandemic for spreading misinformation about covid. She has blamed the NHS for her daughter’s death. Shemirani promotes fringe treatments for cancer, including caffeine enemas. The full programme is on BBC iPlayer now.
Division: A year-long commission will aim to fix “deepening polarisation” in British society. It will be led by Sir Sajid Javid, the former Conservative cabinet minister, and the former Labour MP Jon Cruddas. The commission has cross-party backing from the PM and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch. Sir Sajid told The Telegraph: “Communal life in Britain is under threat like never before and intervention is urgently needed.
Crocs sink Bezos venue: Protesters in Venice claimed an "enormous victory" after Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and his wedding guests were forced to relocate to another venue. The three-day party to mark the wedding of one of the world's richest men to TV presenter Lauren Sanchez is believed to be costing £41m. The lavish celebrations were supposed to culminate in an event on Saturday at the Scuola Grande della Misericordia - an exhibition centre in Venice. But the guests will gather instead at the Arsenale, further from the centre. Protesters say their issue is with the "privatisation" and "exploitation" of the city. "He is basically going to treat the whole city as a private ballroom, as a private event area, as if the citizens are not there," said Alice Bazzoli, an activist with No Space for Bezos. The protesters had threatened to fill the canals of Venice with inflatable crocodiles to disrupt guests from arriving. The star-studded ceremony is set to be attended by guests including Leonardo DiCaprio and Orlando Bloom.
Equal pay: Actor Jason Isaacs revealed that every actor on the White Lotus received $40,000 per episode, noting this was “a very low price” for such a huge TV show. This means newbie actors were paid the same as veteran stars like Parker Posey. He said: "Generally actors don’t talk about pay in public because it’s ridiculously disproportionate to what we do — putting on makeup and funny voices — and just upsets the public. But compared to what people normally get paid for big television shows, that’s a very low price. But the fact is, we would have paid to be in it. We probably would have given a body part.”
Going Viral
A clip of BBC news reader Martine Croxall correcting a news report autocue from “pregnant people” to “women” has been hailed by gender critical campaigners.
While many transgender rights campaigners view the use of the term “people” when referring to pregnancy and breastfeeding as inclusive, others have argued it ignores the reality of biological sex.
Croxall was reporting on a story about heatwave-related deaths. The script said that “pregnant people and those with pre-existing health conditions need to take precautions”.
Croxall read the phrase “pregnant people” then corrected it to “women”. This was accompanied by an eye roll.
Harry Potter author JK Rowling hailed the clip, writing on Twitter: “I have a new favourite TV presenter.”
Croxall took to Twitter later, saying: “It’s been quite a ride.”
The original press release on which the news report was based includes the phrase “pregnant people”.
The debate around gender continues to divide opinion and spark toxic exchanges. Last week Stephen Fry accused Rowling of being “radicalised by TERFs” - trans-exclusionary radical feminists - and that he used to be close to the author, but had become disturbed by her comments on gender.
Rowling hit back, saying on Twitter: “It is a great mistake to assume that everyone who claims to have been a friend of mine was ever considered a friend by me.”
Speaking to Vanity Fair this week, actor Pedro Pascal, whose sister is transgender, was quizzed on the fallout from his comments about Rowling earlier this year. He had slammed Rowling’s “heinous loser behaviour” earlier this year after she celebrated the Supreme Court’s ruling on the equality act, which set out that for the purposes of the act, sex means biological sex. Pascal told Vanity Fair that “bullies make me fucking sick”.
The Watchlist
Grenfell: Uncovered (Netflix). A harrowing documentary about the Grenfell Tower disaster that highlights both the horror of that night but also the enraging lack of accountability years later. Survivors, housing journalist Peter Apps and firefighters help piece together what happened that night, why and what has happened since.
Poop Cruise (Netflix). It’s been an intense week and if you’re feeling like you need a mental switch-off from the news, then watching a one-hour documentary about people stuck on a ship with no loos is what you need. This tells the 2013 story of the Triumph cruise ship, which suffered a fire in its engine room that led to a total loss of power. More than 4,000 guests were trapped on the ship with no toilets for several days. While I have no doubt living through the nightmare of being handed plastic bags to poop in, on a ship with no air conditioning, was horrific, watching the documentary about it is highly entertaining.