Now what?
Keir Starmer won big, but some call it a “sandcastle majority” that could be easily swept away. And Sue Gray has a “s*** list” for him to handle.
Millions of people woke up this morning and switched on their televisions only to be… not very surprised at all.
Even if you had missed the 10pm exit poll - announced with Marvel movie drama on Sky News and accompanied by gasps from Kay Burley - you already had a pretty good idea of what was going to happen.
It’s funny how the six-week election campaign seems to have been both significant and utterly irrelevant at the same time.
Think of all that happened. Rishi Sunak standing in the rain outside Number 10 while “Things Can Only Get Better” was blasted from an activist’s speaker as he tried to announce the election. His disastrous D-Day snub. The election betting scandal. Ed Davey hurtling himself off of varying levels of height on a daily basis.
And yet those six weeks changed absolutely nothing in terms of the core result.
The only thing you could deem relevant was the return of Nigel Farage to Reform UK, which, as expected, massively hindered the Conservatives in several seats they were fighting to hold against Labour.
For Farage, four seats is a big victory. He will look to build on that with a view to becoming the opposition at the next election. How successful he is depends on what happens now with the Conservatives. Will they unite, or implode?
Many Conservative MPs saw the writing on the wall months ago and declared they would not stand in this election. Among them were Tory heavyweights like Dominic Raab, Sajid Javid and Michael Gove.
But there were still plenty of scalps left for this election to take - Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps and Jacob Rees-Mogg, to name a few.
Liz Truss’s result on Friday morning was perhaps the most symbolic of the mess the Tories had got themselves into. The shortest-serving PM in history humiliated as her 26,000 majority crumbled to dust.
As her own former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng told interviewers this morning, the disastrous mini-budget was a factor in this terrible night for the Conservatives, but not the only cause.
Her 50-day tenure as PM certainly stands out, so much so when people give reasons for their voting decisions they only need to say “Liz Truss” and no further explanation is required. But this wasn’t Truss’s loss alone. The seismic impact of Brexit, Chris Pincher, Partygate. Take your pick.
This was, as elections expert Prof Sir John Curtice explained, more of a Tory loss than a Labour win.
Reform had a string of second-place finishes in results across the country, swiping valuable votes from the Conservatives.
Starmer has won a significant majority, but some experts say Labour has built a “monumental sandcastle". Labour's victory comes off the back of a 35% voter share. This is up just 1.4 percentage points on 2019. Times Radio’s Andrew Neil called Labour’s win “as wide as an ocean, but as shallow as the village pond".
Yes Starmer has transformed his party and managed a remarkable turnaround in fortunes. But now he must deliver the change he has been promising.
Combine those shaky foundations with the weight of the challenge at hand, and it’s easy to imagine the honeymoon period may not be all that long.
Labour’s chief of staff Sue Gray, yes THAT Sue Gray, author of the Partygate report, has drawn up a “shit list” of issues for the party to deal with.
Prison overcrowding is a huge and underreported one. An i News headline this week said prisons are just days away from being full.
Also on the list is the potential collapse of Thames Water, pay negotiations with junior doctors, and struggling local councils.
Plus there’s the NHS waiting list, a summer of small boat arrivals and the asylum seeker backlog.
With this in mind, it could be a cruel summer (Taylor Swift reference totally intended) for Starmer. It certainly will be for MPs, as Starmer has already indicated he will extend parliament’s sitting time beyond July 23, which is when they usually break for the summer recess.
But his diary for the week ahead gives him a decent shot at looking statesman-like from the get-go.
On July 9 he will head to Washington for a Nato leaders’ summit. He will meet with US president Joe Biden and reaffirm the UK’s support for Ukraine.
The new parliament will meet for the first time on July 9 and then the King’s Speech - in which the government sets out its priorities - will take place on July 17.
The markets have already reacted positively to news of his landslide victory.
Plus Starmer is aided by the nation’s mood during a summer of potentially national pride-inspiring sporting events - Wimbledon, the Euros and the Olympics.
Today will be all about the optics of the transfer of power. Then the hard work begins.
Quick links
Nadine Dorries’ appearance on Channel 4’s generation election coverage was one of the highlights of my night. Her fiery clashes felt like a drunken family fallout at Christmas.
Labour lost out on seats due to its stance on Gaza. The party backs a ceasefire, but this position has come too gradually for some critics. This is being blamed for a shock result in Leicester South where shadow cabinet member Jonathan Ashworth lost his seat to independent Shockat Adam. It’s also thought to be a factor in former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s win as an independent in Islington North. Labour would have won in Chingford and Woodford Green, but their vote was split with independent candidate Faiza Shaheen, who stood after being deselected by Labour a the last minute.
How do new PMs move into Number 10?
What will the change in government mean for your finances? Money Saving Expert’s Martin Lewis explores the possibilities, but for now it’s not completely clear.
Former nurse Lucy Letby will be sentenced later after being found guilty of the attempted murder of a baby girl. She is already serving life in jail after being found guilty of a string of murders and attempted murders of babies in her care. This BBC article about the case is a solid overview of this trial and the debate about some of the evidence.
Across the pond, The Economist ran a front page featuring a walking frame with the seal of the President of the United States. The publication is calling for Joe Biden to step aside after his disastrous election debate performance. He’s also facing pressure from donors.