Can Sunak's Rwanda plan work?
Rishi is making big promises on his plan to Stop The Boats, but legal loopholes remain. Plus row over US campus protests and military horses run loose through London.
It’s been an important week for politics with developments that will have a huge impact on the general election campaign (whenever that might be).
The government’s flagship Rwanda bill will finally become law following a “ping pong” process between the House of Commons and House of Lords this week.
Rishi Sunak says he wants flights carrying migrants who have arrived in the UK illegally to take off for Rwanda in 10 to 12 weeks. After that he expects flights to run regularly.
The overall aim of the Rwanda bill is not to send every migrant who arrives here illegally to the country. It is intended as a deterrent to prevent migrants attempting the perilous English Channel crossing from France by small boat.
During interviews this week government ministers put across both of these statements:
Rwanda is a safe country where migrants will be financially better off than if they had stayed in their country of origin.
Sending people to Rwanda will break the business model of criminal gangs who put people on these small boats in dangerous conditions.
Can it be possible for the Rwanda plan to be a success with such contradictory statements? The government needs to defend the moral issues around its plan, and also present it as a deterrent to stop desperate refugees from attempting the Channel crossing.
The Rwanda plan feels like a gamble. Stopping the boats is one of Rishi Sunak’s five key pledges to the electorate, but there’s no evidence this plan can actually fulfil that pledge.
Ministers have pointed to Australia as an example of a country that sent migrants elsewhere for processing, leading to a downturn in boat arrivals. However Australia deployed other stringent measures as well, such as returning the boats to where they had departed from.
Assuming the general election takes place in November and assuming further legal challenges don’t delay the flights to Rwanda (which they still may do, despite the legislation), will people continue to cross the Channel in small boats anyway? They were prepared to risk their lives, so what does it matter if they end up in Rwanda? Will they feel the risk is worth it? At the moment the threat of Rwanda already looms, and yet small boat crossings are up 24% this year.
And all of the political rows over making the bill law may be useless, given legal loopholes still remain to challenge deportations. Nicholas Hughes, whose London legal firm Duncan Lewis represents around 60 migrants, told the Telegraph: “When the next flight comes around, we’ll do everything we can to ensure our clients aren’t on it.”
Sunak is betting everything on his plan working. If it doesn’t, he could of course attempt to blame it on lefty lawyers, but that’s unlikely to be a path to victory at the election.
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Five people, including a seven-year-old girl, died while trying to cross the English Channel on Tuesday. The victims were trying to get to the UK on an overloaded boat carrying 112 migrants. Reporters have suggested this type of boat could safely carry 20 people. The boat ran aground on a sandbank after leaving Wimereux, near Boulogne. It is believed the young girl and a woman drowned after falling into the water. This incident of overcrowding on a boat is part of a new tactic by criminal gangs profiting from selling people seats on small boats. Sky News details how around 50 people initially boarded the boat at the beach, before another 50 pushed their way on board and took over the craft. Nobody was thrown off, however the now overladen boat then ran into difficulties that resulted in those deaths.
The number of people attempting to cross the English Channel in small boats has increased by 24%. As at 21 April, 6,265 people had crossed the English Channel in small boats since the start of 2024. That is up by nearly a quarter compared to the same period the year before. Around 20% of these people are Vietnamese. A Home Office report in December said many Vietnamese migrants brought to the UK were "highly likely to work in exploitative conditions" - such as in cannabis farms.
The first flights to Rwanda are expected to take off in 10 to 12 weeks after the government finally passed its Safety of Rwanda bill. The government expects about 150 people to be be on the first two or three flights, according to the Telegraph. The new bill does allow legal challenges to deportation if an individual detainee faces a “real, imminent and foreseeable risk of serious irreversible harm if removed to Rwanda”. This would have to be based on compelling evidence relating to their specific individual circumstances. PM Rishi Sunak has set out a series of measures that he says will help with the smooth running of the flights, such as increased courtroom capacity, with 150 judges and 25 courtrooms lined up in order to fast-track the cases.
Rishi Sunak has promised to increase UK military spending to 2.5% of national income by 2030. He said the move is to counter threats from "an axis of authoritarian states”. He stressed the UK was "not on the brink of war" but that the extra money would put the country's defence industry "on a war footing”. Labour is also committed to a 2.5% target, when economic conditions allow. Making the defence announcement during a visit to Poland, Sunak said the UK was facing the most dangerous international environment since the days of the Cold War between the West and the former Soviet Union. Defence secretary Grant Shapps has said all Nato countries should match the UK’s spending on defence. Two thirds of Nato allies are expected to meet or exceed the target of investing in defence of at least 2%.
We don’t know when the general election will be, however the local elections in England and Wales will take place next week on May 2. There are over 2,600 seats up for election in 107 different councils, as well as the London Assembly, and elections for new police and crime commissioners. The Conservatives are defending over 980 seats, with polls suggestion they may lose half of those. There will also be a by-election in Blackpool South, where Conservative Scott Benton was forced to resign after being suspended for 35 days having been caught in a newspaper sting operation offering lobbying services for payment. Polls suggest Labour will win the seat. Although a general election seems more likely in autumn, the results of these elections in May could force Rishi Sunak’s hand into calling a summer vote. My advice: Make sure you are registered to vote now, even if you are undecided, disenchanted or apathetic. You won’t be able to register at the last minute. You can register to vote here.
Labour says it expects to renationalise most passenger rail services within five years if it is elected in what the party calls the "biggest overhaul to our railways in a generation". Renationalisation would not necessarily mean cheaper prices, but Labour says the system would be "more transparent and clearer".
Donald Trump’s hush-money trial in New York is underway and the expectations of a high-intensity spectacle have been met. Trump, who faces up to four years behind bars if convicted, is charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records for the way in which he accounted for a repayment to his former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen. Cohen had channeled money to a porn star, Stormy Daniels, looking to sell her story about a sexual encounter with Trump. Prosecutors say the payment was meant to cover up a scandal that could have derailed Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. Todd Blanche, Trump’s defence attorney, argued there is nothing wrong with seeking to influence an election - “it’s called democracy,” he said. There were legal arguments about whether Trump had violated a gag order designed to protect trial participants from being the target of Trump’s abuse. Manhattan prosecutors have accused Trump of violating the order at least 10 times in online attacks against potential witnesses Cohen and Daniels The gag order prohibits any statements about witnesses, jurors, lawyers, court staff and their families, “made with the intent to materially interfere” with any work in the case. The judge, Juan Merchan, will decide whether Trump has violated the order and should be fined $10,000 at a later date. The first witness in the trial, David Pecker, former publisher of the National Enquirer, has testified about how he would “catch and kill” unfavourable stories about Trump during his presidential campaign as part of their mutually beneficial relationship.
Police have arrested a number of students at campuses across the US as pro-Palestinian protests continue to grow. Protesters calling for a ceasefire in Gaza have refused to disband from Columbia University's main campus after a deadline was set by the institution's president. Dr Minouche Shafik warned demonstrators that "alternative options" would have to be considered for clearing the area on the New York City campus if an agreement with demonstrators is not reached. More than 20 people were arrested at the University of Texas this week and more than 100 demonstrators were arrested at Columbia last week. The demonstrations have come in the wake of recent congressional hearings on antisemitism on campus and amid an uptick in antisemitism and anti-Muslim sentiment in the US. The controversy at Columbia and other campuses has illustrated how universities have struggled to uphold their dual commitments to free speech and protecting their students during a fraught political moment when more young people sympathise with the Palestinian cause. Some Jewish students say they no longer feel safe on campuses where large protests are being held. There’s a good explainer on the college campus demonstrations here. The Washington Post reports the Biden is trying to "strike a careful balance between condemning anti-Semitism on college campuses and supporting the students' right to protest”. Biden has condemned the antisemitic chants that have taken place on some campuses.
The UN's human rights chief has said he is "horrified" by reports of "mass graves" being found at Gaza's Nasser and al-Shifa hospitals. Volker Türk called for independent investigations into the deaths. Palestinian officials said they had exhumed 283 bodies at Nasser. It is not clear how they died or when they were buried. Medics working for Doctors Without Borders described how Israeli forces attacked Nasser hospital in late January before withdrawing a month later, leaving the facility unable to function. Officials in Gaza said the bodies at Nasser were people who had died during the siege. Israel’s military has rejected allegations of mass burials at the hospital, saying it had exhumed corpses to try to find hostages taken by Hamas.
Hamas has posted a video of an Israeli-American man held hostage in the Gaza Strip on its Telegram messaging group, where he is seen alive with an amputated hand. Hersh Goldberg-Polin, 23, who was captured from the Nova desert rave during the Hamas attack on October 7, called on the Israeli government to step down after “rejecting” deals to free the 133 hostages remaining in captivity. He says: “Do you not want to end this nightmare? At a time when you are having your Passover meals with your families, think of us hostages under the ground, without water, food or sunlight, or the medical attention I’ve needed for so long.” In the message he also claimed 70 of the remaining hostages are dead.
The Prince and Princess of Wales released a new photo of their youngest son to mark his sixth birthday - with an added clarification that the image was unedited. Traditionally birthday pictures are released under embargo the day before the birthday of one of the working royals - or their children. This typically leads the image to dominate front pages, or at least the very early pages of the day’s newspapers. However this year the couple didn’t release the birthday image until lunchtime the day of Louis’s birthday. The Mail reports that the couple had considered not issuing an image at all. If there was hesitancy, it was likely down to furore over the Mother’s Day photo of Catherine and her children, which it transpired had been edited. The image was subsequently withdrawn by international photo agencies. Catherine continues to recover at their Windsor home while she undergoes preventative chemotherapy after cancer was found by her medical team following abdominal surgery in January. My theory is they deliberately chose to release the photo in the day on his birthday in order to avoid it being a huge breaking story for the morning’s papers. The family wants to continue their tradition of releasing family snaps taken by Catherine, but they didn’t want a big fuss made this year while Catherine is recovering and the Mother’s Day photo fallout is still fresh. By doing it quietly they will now be able to return to this status quo, although they will know that photo agencies (and social media) will be watching any selfies like a hawk. There has already been a conspiracy theory shared online regarding the photo of Prince Louis being an old photo. This has been easily debunked here
The Princess of Wales has become the first member of the Royal family appointed to the Order of the Companions of Honour. The 41-year-old has been honoured by the King for her “outstanding” public service. She joins an array of notable members including Sir David Attenborough, David Hockney, Dame Maggie Smith, Sir Paul McCartney and Sir Elton John. The King created the role of Royal Companion of the Order especially for his daughter-in-law. The Order of the Companions of Honour was founded in 1917 by George V to recognise outstanding achievements in the arts, sciences, medicine and public service.
TikTok has promised a court battle over a new law that threatens to ban the social media app in the US. President Joe Biden approved the law that states the platform will be blocked if its Chinese owner, ByteDance, does not sell it within nine months. US politicians are worried the company could share user data with the Chinese government, despite repeated assurances from TikTok that it would not. A statement by the company said: "This unconstitutional law is a TikTok ban, and we will challenge it in court. We believe the facts and the law are clearly on our side, and we will ultimately prevail.” Use of TikTok by the US federal government's nearly four million employees on devices owned by its agencies is already banned in the US. A similar ban is also in place for civil servants in the UK.
Huw Edwards has resigned and left the BBC on medical grounds. A BBC spokesperson said this week: “Huw Edwards has today resigned and left the BBC. After 40 years of service, Huw has explained that his decision was made on the basis of medical advice from his doctors. The BBC has accepted his resignation, which it believes will allow all parties to move forward. We don’t believe it appropriate to comment further.” Edwards, 62, was suspended by the broadcaster in July last year over allegations he received inappropriate images from a younger person and gave them money. The Sun reported, in a series of stories, how the younger person’s family had issued a complaint about Edwards’ connection to their relative which the BBC failed to deal with. After the story broke Edwards came off air and received hospital care for serious mental health issues. The corporation has confirmed Edwards has not received a payoff. It was a muted end for the veteran news anchor’s lengthy career. Many colleagues, including Andrew Marr, paid tribute to him and expressed sadness his work at the BBC had ended in such a way.
Two Household Cavalry horses are in “serious condition” after a six-mile stampede through central London. The military horses caused "total mayhem" after bolting during exercises. The Household Cavalry said the animals were spooked by builders dropping rubble from a height "right next to them”. The incident happened on Wednesday morning as the horses took part in what the army called "routine exercise" in the Belgravia area. Seven horses and six Household Cavalry soldiers were on the exercise when chaos erupted. Four service personnel were thrown off and five horses got loose. A white horse was seen covered in blood after hitting a taxi, while another animal smashed the windscreen of a parked tour bus. Four people were injured in the incident, including three members of he Household Cavalry, who were taken to hospital to be treated. Here’s the British Army’s full statement on the incident.
Richard Gadd, whose real-life experience with a stalker inspired him to write hit Netflix show Baby Reindeer, has asked fans to stop speculating about the true identities of some of its characters. The Netflix series depicts the true story of a stalker who harassed the writer over a number of years. Fans believe they have found his real stalker on social media, and there has been speculation about who is the male TV writer depicted as raping Gadd’s character Donny in the show Gadd said people close to him were "unfairly getting caught up in speculation”. Gadd’s friend Sean Foley has contacted police over false claims connecting him to the show online.
A nine-year-old boy has won a European championship with his impression of a seagull. Cooper, from Derbyshire, travelled to the Belgian town of De Panne to compete in the EC Gull Screeching competition. He started doing seagull impressions after being nipped by one while he was eating a tuna sandwich. He wanted to become "Seagull Boy", like when Peter Parker became Spider-Man after being bitten by a spider. He scored 92 points out of a possible 100, which meant he won the juvenile category and also had the highest points score in the competition. Cooper took his lucky mascot with him - a small model seagull which he calls Stephen, but his parents call Steven Seagull, like the actor Steven Seagal.
An unexpected new episode of kids TV show Bluey landed on Disney+ this week - appropriately named Surprise. It came hot on the heels of the heartwarming 28-minute episode The Sign. Guardian writer Stuart Heritage explains how he came up with the idea for the episode, and about the journey to seeing it finally appear on TV screens.
What I’m Watching
Civil War (in cinemas). I managed to sneak away from work this week (one of the perks of working for yourself) and watch this dystopian movie from Alex Garland, starring Kirsten Dunst. She plays a war photographer used to travelling the world to cover conflicts, now reporting on one in her own country, America. Cynical and battle-worn, Dunst’s character is heading for DC with her colleague where they plan to interview the president as he makes a final stand against forces from the west coast. On the way they witness disturbing acts of brutality and bloodshed that are worryingly not implausible, given the increasing polarisation of politics in the US. The movie does a good job of setting up the background without too much awkward exposition. It doesn’t focus on the politics of how it all happened, it just looks at the fallout. And it’s also an examination of the role of a journalist. At one point Dunst’s character says they’re not there to ask questions, just report so other people can ask the questions. It’s about the determination to be there covering the story, no matter the danger and no matter the costs. If you don’t make it to the cinema, then I thoroughly recommend you check it out once it’s streaming.